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The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index dropped 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, and both current assessments and expectations weakened. The survey also found higher inflation expectations and a larger share of consumers expecting interest rates to rise; it does not establish what caused the changes.
The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, down from 88.6 in August, as consumers grew less positive about current business and labor conditions and the months ahead. The preliminary survey covered September 1-23, a period that included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but the report does not quantify how much either affected responses.
The index’s two measures both declined. The Present Situation Index, which reflects consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, fell 7.9 points to 109.3. The Expectations Index, which tracks the short-term outlook for income, business and labor conditions, dropped 5.9 points to 63.6. September was its third consecutive monthly decline.
Views of current business conditions turned negative on a net basis for the first time since September 2024. The share saying conditions were good minus the share saying they were bad fell 3.4 percentage points to –1.9%, with the report attributing the change largely to more consumers describing conditions as bad. The jobs differential—the share saying jobs were plentiful minus the share saying they were hard to get—slipped 2.5 points to +1.7%, remaining above zero.
All three expectations components weakened. Net expectations for business conditions fell 3.2 points to –9.5%, while labor-market expectations fell 3.1 points to –14.4%. Expected household income declined 3.0 points but stayed positive at +2.5%. Consumers’ average and median 12-month inflation expectations each rose 0.3 points, to 6.1% and 5.1%, respectively. The share expecting interest rates to rise over the next year increased 5.2 points to 68.4%.
Consumers See Weaker Conditions Ahead
The report points to a broadening decline in consumer sentiment: respondents assessed current business conditions more negatively, saw less favorable labor-market conditions and expected further weakening over the next six months. The expectations measure’s third monthly fall adds evidence that the softer outlook has persisted through the summer.
For households and businesses, these readings matter because perceptions of jobs, prices, borrowing costs and income can inform decisions about spending and planning. The September results also show that consumers continued to expect household incomes to rise on balance, although less strongly than in prior months. The survey measures reported views and expectations; it does not show how much consumers subsequently spent or establish that confidence changes will produce a particular economic outcome.
Higher inflation expectations and the jump in the share expecting higher interest rates provide additional indicators of consumers’ concerns about the year ahead. The report does not identify the specific causes of these changes or translate them into a forecast for inflation, borrowing costs or retail sales.
Three Months of Softer Expectations
The August Consumer Confidence Index stood at 88.6, making September’s reading a 6.7-point decrease from the prior month. The Expectations Index had also fallen in July and August, according to The Conference Board’s September report. Its latest value, 63.6, reflects consumers’ views of the next six months across income, business and labor conditions.
The September preliminary survey collected responses from September 1 through 23. Hardware Retailing’s September 29 account noted that the period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Those events are timing context, not proof of what drove the results: the published figures do not isolate their effects or compare respondents exposed to different conditions.
The report also found that confidence trended downward on a six-month moving-average basis among all age groups and nearly all income groups. Higher-income groups remained generally more optimistic, while households earning $125,000-$149,000 recorded the largest confidence decline over that six-month measure. Consumers still largely expected stock prices to rise over the coming year, though optimism moderated in September.
Causes and Consumer Choices Remain Unknown
The preliminary survey documents a decline in confidence, but it does not establish why consumers’ views changed or assign the shift to the rate hike, geopolitical tensions, inflation expectations or another factor. The reported window overlapped with those conditions, but overlap alone does not show causation.
The figures also do not reveal whether weaker sentiment will lead households to cut spending, delay purchases or change saving plans. Nor does the report specify how September’s preliminary results may compare with any later revision. The survey records responses and expectations; it is not a direct measure of future economic activity.
Watch the Next Confidence Reading
The next useful milestone is The Conference Board’s subsequent consumer confidence release, which can show whether the September decline continued, stabilized or reversed. Readers can compare the headline index with its Present Situation and Expectations components, since those measures capture different views of current conditions and the six-month outlook.
Future readings will also indicate whether inflation expectations and the share anticipating higher interest rates remain elevated. September’s report does not provide a forecast for those measures or a specific date for a change in direction. Until new data arrive, the confirmed picture is a lower September index, weaker readings across its components and continued uncertainty about what is driving consumers’ outlook.
Key Questions
How much did consumer confidence fall in September?
The Conference Board’s index fell 6.7 points, from 88.6 in August to 81.9 in September.
What happened to the expectations measure?
The Expectations Index declined 5.9 points to 63.6. It marked the measure’s third consecutive monthly decline.
Did consumers expect their incomes to fall?
Not on a net basis. Net expectations for household income remained positive at +2.5%, although the measure fell 3.0 percentage points in September.
Does the report say what caused the decline?
No. The survey period included a federal funds rate hike and ongoing geopolitical tensions, but the report does not determine how much those or other factors contributed.
Source: rss
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